Storm risk in Sebastian County, Arkansas

FEMA's overall hazard score for Sebastian County is 86.80 (Relatively Moderate), 416th of 3,144 counties. Hail scores 65.62 (Relatively Low), strong wind 56.04 (Relatively Moderate) and tornado 94.24 (Relatively High). Expected hail loss is $13 per $1 million of buildings a year; NOAA logged 91 hail reports in Sebastian County from 2014 to June 2026.

FEMA National Risk Index, version December 2025, retrieved October 8, 2026. NOAA hail reports 2014 to June 2026.

Sebastian County: expected yearly loss per $1 million of buildings for hail, strong wind and tornado, on a log scale, against all U.S. counties and the counties of AR$0.1$1$10$100$1,000Hail: $13 per $1 million, 1,901st of 3,126 rated counties$13Hail1,901st of 3,126 countiesStrong wind: $3.60 per $1 million, 2,759th of 3,121 rated counties$3.60Strong wind2,759th of 3,121 countiesTornado: $353 per $1 million, 841st of 3,144 rated counties$353Tornado841st of 3,144 counties
  • Sebastian County, coloured by its FEMA rating
  • all U.S. counties
  • each county in the state
  • U.S. median
  • state median

Expected yearly loss per $1 million of buildings, log scale. Dot colour is FEMA’s rating band. The tornado lane counts everything exposed, not only buildings.

How FEMA rates Sebastian County

HazardRatingScore (0 to 100)Rank in U.S.Rank in AR
OverallRelatively Moderate 86.80416 of 3,1447 of 75
HailRelatively Low 65.621,082 of 3,12624 of 75
Strong windRelatively Moderate 56.041,383 of 3,12642 of 75
TornadoRelatively High 94.24182 of 3,1268 of 75

Expected yearly loss, in dollars

HazardThis county, total a yearPer $1M of buildingsState median countyU.S. median countyRank per $1M, U.S.Rank per $1M, state
Hail$369,550$13 $22$22 1,901 of 3,12663 of 75
Strong wind$99,945$3.60 $49$20 2,759 of 3,12174 of 75
Tornado$9,802,655$353 $451$199 841 of 3,14455 of 75

Rank 1 is the highest. Overall, hail and wind losses count buildings; the tornado row counts everything FEMA exposes, so it overstates building damage. Expected annual loss is an average over many years for the whole county, not a forecast for one roof.

What stands out in Sebastian County

  • FEMA expects hail in Sebastian County to cost $13 per $1 million of buildings a year: 0.60 times the U.S. median and 0.59 times the AR county median, ranked 1,901st of 3,126 counties nationally and 63rd of 75 in Arkansas.
  • FEMA expects strong wind in Sebastian County to cost $3.60 per $1 million of buildings a year: 0.18 times the U.S. median and 0.07 times the AR county median, ranked 2,759th of 3,121 counties nationally and 74th of 75 in Arkansas.
  • FEMA expects tornado in Sebastian County to cost $353 per $1 million of buildings a year: 1.77 times the U.S. median and 0.78 times the AR county median, ranked 841st of 3,144 counties nationally and 55th of 75 in Arkansas.
  • Applying FEMA's estimate to a $166,000 home, the average yearly loss in Sebastian County is about $2.21 for hail and $0.60 for wind before any deductible; at the U.S. median county rates it would be $3.71 and $3.38.
  • If the next years look like 2014 to 2025, a roof kept 20 years in Sebastian County meets about 56.7 hail days of 1 inch or more; the median county in NOAA's file (1,275 counties) would give 35.0.
  • Built in 1980, the median home in Sebastian County is 46 years old, so an original roof has outlived a 3-tab shingle (15 to 20 years) and an architectural one (25 to 30 years); 77.6% of its 57,197 homes are at least 26 years old.
  • March to June holds 79 of the 91 hail reports in Sebastian County (87 percent); the quietest month is January, with 0 reports.

What hail and wind cost a home here in an average year

Enter a home value. The calculator applies Sebastian County’s own loss rate: the county’s expected yearly loss divided by the value of its buildings. It starts at the Census median home value for the county.

$2.21hail, a year; $3.71 at the U.S. median county rate
$0.60strong wind, a year; $3.38 at the U.S. median county rate
$56hail and wind together over 20 years, at today’s rate

Formula: home value × Sebastian County yearly loss ÷ building value. Hail: $369,550 ÷ $27,791,355,919 = 0.0000133. Wind: $99,945 ÷ $27,791,355,919 = 0.0000036. This is FEMA’s estimate of average damage to buildings and does not account for your deductible. Tornado is left out because FEMA’s tornado loss counts people and other exposure, not only buildings.

Read this as a yardstick. The rate is an average over every building in the county, from sheds to office towers, and over many years. Real losses come in rare, large storms; a roof with no damage in 19 years can need full replacement in the 20th. The figure is not a quote and not a prediction for one address.

Sebastian County in plain numbers

  • Sebastian County scores 86.80 in FEMA's overall hazard index (Relatively Moderate): 416th of 3,144 rated counties and 7th of 75 in Arkansas.
  • Hail scores 65.62 (Relatively Low). FEMA expects $369,550 of hail damage to buildings in Sebastian County a year, which is $13 per $1 million of buildings, 0.60 times the U.S. median.
  • Strong wind scores 56.04 (Relatively Moderate) with $99,945 of expected yearly building loss in Sebastian County: $3.60 per $1 million of buildings, 0.18 times the U.S. median.
  • Tornado scores 94.24 (Relatively High) and FEMA's expected yearly tornado loss is $9,802,655, counting everything exposed, or $353 per $1 million of buildings in Sebastian County.
  • FEMA's own event record for Sebastian County averages 5.78 hail events and 4.38 strong-wind events a year.
  • NOAA logged 91 hail reports in Sebastian County between 2014 and June 2026, on 38 days with stones of 1 inch or more; the largest was 2.5 inches.
  • In Sebastian County, FEMA counts buildings worth 27.79 billion dollars and 127,706 residents.
  • Social vulnerability is Relatively Moderate in Sebastian County.
  • Community resilience there is Relatively Low, for 127,706 residents.
  • 1 city in Sebastian County is covered on this site: Fort Smith. 14 Census ZIP areas have more than half of their land in the county.
  • Our guide range for a 2,000 sq ft asphalt roof in Fort Smith is $5,600 to $12,400.
  • Sebastian County ranks 124 of the 194 counties with a page here for hail loss per $1 million of buildings, 165 for wind and 50 for tornado.
  • In Sebastian County, April is the busiest month with 31 of the 91 reports (34 percent), against 9 reports in October.
  • Sebastian County's worst year was 2020, with 6 hail days at 1 inch or more and 9 reports. At the 2014 to 2025 pace that is 2.83 such days a year, one about every 4.2 months.
  • The median home in Sebastian County was built in 1980; 50.3% of its 57,197 housing units date from before 1980, 77.6% from before 2000 and 10.7% from 2010 on.
  • Census puts the median home value in Sebastian County at $166,000, and 61.2% of homes are lived in by their owners.
  • 2,414 single-family building permits were issued in Sebastian County from 2014 to 2025, about 42.2 per 1,000 homes, peaking in 2021.
  • NOAA lists 17 tornado tracks in Sebastian County since 2014; the strongest was an EF1 on May 19, 2025 near Enterprise, 12.9 miles long.
  • The fastest gust in NOAA's records for Sebastian County is 82 mph on May 18, 2019 at Greenwood.
  • The nearest county with a page here is Washington County, 55 miles from the centre of Sebastian County; its hail score is 94.12.
  • Across counties the median is one roofing firm for every 5,189 homes; Census counted 18 roofing contractor establishments in Sebastian County in 2023, one for every 3,178 homes.
  • FEMA has named Sebastian County in 8 disaster declarations since 2014, the latest 234 days before its data end, and 4 of them were storm-type.

The hail record of Sebastian County, year by year

NOAA logged 91 reports in Sebastian County; hail of 1 inch or more fell on 38 days. That is 2.8 such days a year; the median county in NOAA’s file has 1.8.

Sebastian County: NOAA hail reports per year, 2014 to June 2026, with the number of days that had hail of 1 inch or more0510152014: 5 reports, 3 days at 1 inch or more, largest 1 inch142015: 7 reports, 3 days at 1 inch or more, largest 2 inch152016: 5 reports, 3 days at 1 inch or more, largest 2.5 inch162017: 7 reports, 2 days at 1 inch or more, largest 2 inch172018: 1 reports, 1 days at 1 inch or more, largest 1.75 inch182019: 3 reports, 2 days at 1 inch or more, largest 1.75 inch192020: 9 reports, 6 days at 1 inch or more, largest 1.75 inch202021: 1 reports, 1 days at 1 inch or more, largest 1 inch212022: 15 reports, 4 days at 1 inch or more, largest 2.5 inch222023: 9 reports, 3 days at 1 inch or more, largest 2 inch232024: 4 reports, 1 days at 1 inch or more, largest 1 inch242025: 11 reports, 5 days at 1 inch or more, largest 1.25 inch252026: 14 reports, 4 days at 1 inch or more, largest 2.5 inch26*
  • reports
  • days with hail of 1 inch or more
  • * 2026 runs to June only
Sebastian County: NOAA hail reports by calendar month, 2014 to June 2026January: 0 reports0JanFebruary: 0 reports0FebMarch: 12 reports12MarApril: 31 reports31AprMay: 30 reports30MayJune: 6 reports6JunJuly: 1 reports1JulAugust: 1 reports1AugSeptember: 1 reports1SepOctober: 9 reports9OctNovember: 0 reports0NovDecember: 0 reports0Dec

Reports by calendar month, all years together. Peak: April, 31 reports.

The same numbers as a table (years with at least one report)
YearReportsDays, 1 inch or moreDays, 1.75 inch or moreLargest stoneDamage reported
20145301 in–
20157312 in$45,000
20165312.5 in$250,000
20177222 in$90,000
20181111.75 in$25,000
20193211.75 in$15,000
20209621.75 in$145,000
20211101 in–
202215422.5 in$535,000
20239312 in$370,000
20244101 in–
202511501.25 in$25,000
2026 (to June)14432.5 in$500,000

Biggest hail days in Sebastian County

DateLargest stoneReports that dayDamage reportedNear
April 11, 20222.5 in5$450,000Ft Smith
April 29, 20162.5 in2$250,000Ft Smith
April 25, 20262.5 in2$170,000Hartford
April 19, 20152 in5$45,000Midland
April 15, 20232 in5$350,000Ft Smith

Where large hail was reported

FEMA scores the county as a whole. NOAA’s reports show where inside Sebastian County the big stones fell.

Reported hail locations, Sebastian County

1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1.25 in hail1.25 in hail1.25 in hail1.25 in hail1.25 in hail1.25 in hail1.5 in hail1.5 in hail1.5 in hail1.75 in hail1.75 in hail1.75 in hail1.75 in hail1.75 in hail1.75 in hail1.75 in hail1.75 in hail1.75 in hail1.75 in hail1.75 in hail1.75 in hail1.75 in hail1.75 in hail2 in hail2 in hail2 in hail2 in hail2 in hail2 in hail2 in hail2 in hail2.5 in hail2.5 in hail2.5 in hail2.5 in hail Fort Smith
  • 451 to 1.74 in
  • 261.75 to 2.74 in, golf ball to tennis ball
  • 02.75 in and up, baseball

Largest plotted stone: 2.5 in. Bigger dots are bigger stones.

71 reports of 1 inch or larger have coordinates. Each dot is a reported location, not a storm path.

Sources: NOAA, Census county outline

Wind and tornado records for Sebastian County

Fastest gusts in Sebastian County

DateGustNear
May 18, 201982 mphGreenwood
July 23, 201481 mphFt Smith
April 27, 201481 mphGreenwood
May 10, 201581 mphGreenwood

Strongest tornado tracks in Sebastian County

DateScaleLengthInjured / killedNear
May 19, 2025EF112.9 mi0 / 0Enterprise
July 14, 2023EF13.4 mi0 / 0Huntington
November 4, 2022EF15.8 mi0 / 0Huntington
May 3, 2021EF13.6 mi0 / 0Ft Smith

17 tornado tracks in all since 2014; the strongest 4 are listed.

How old the roofs are

Census counts homes by the decade they were built. Under each bar is the number of hail days of 1 inch or more that an original roof from that decade has met, at Sebastian County’s 2014 to 2025 pace of 2.83 such days a year. Most roofs have been replaced since; the row shows what a roof that never was would have taken.

Sebastian County: share of homes by decade built, with the hail days at 1 inch or more that an original roof from each decade has met at the county's 2014 to 2025 ratepre-1940: 5.6% of homes5.6%<19402581940s: 6.7% of homes6.7%1940s2301950s: 9.9% of homes9.9%1950s2011960s: 9.5% of homes9.5%1960s1731970s: 18.7% of homes18.7%1970s1441980s: 15.2% of homes15.2%1980s1161990s: 12.1% of homes12.1%1990s882000s: 11.7% of homes11.7%2000s602010s: 9.5% of homes9.5%2010s312020+: 1.2% of homes1.2%2020+8

Bars: share of 57,197 housing units by decade built. Figures under the decade: hail days met by an original roof, at the county’s 2014 to 2025 pace. The pace of earlier years is unknown.

Median year built1980
Built before 198050.3%
Built before 200077.6%
Built since 201010.7%
Owner-occupied61.2%
Median home value$166,000
Single-family permits, 2014 to 20252,414
Permits per 1,000 homes42.2

Asphalt shingles are rated 15 to 20 years (3-tab) and 25 to 30 years (architectural). Source: Census ACS 2019 to 2023 and Building Permits Survey.

Roofers and past disasters in Sebastian County

Roofing firms in Sebastian County

Roofing contractor establishments, 202318
Change since 2016+10 (+125%)
Homes per roofing firm3,178
Median across counties5,189
Employees, 2023206

Source for Sebastian County: Census County Business Patterns, NAICS 238160.

FEMA disaster declarations naming Sebastian County since 2014

Declarations naming Sebastian County8
Storm / flood / winter / fire4 / 2 / 2 / 0
Median AR county6
Rank among 33 AR counties8
Days from the latest to the data cutoff234

Source for Sebastian County: OpenFEMA, data to 2026-09-15. Declaration list for Sebastian County.

Nearby counties

The closest counties that have a risk page, by distance between county centres. Loss is per $1 million of buildings; the columns marked "times here" divide the neighbour's loss by Sebastian County's.

CountyMilesOverallHail lossHail, times hereWind lossWind, times hereNOAA hail reports
Washington County, AR55 Relatively Moderate $594.45$2.470.69156
Benton County, AR77 Relatively Moderate $221.69$123.27197
Faulkner County, AR107 Relatively Moderate $191.41$143.9971
Pulaski County, AR109 Relatively High $332.46$7.312.03114
Craighead County, AR206 Relatively Moderate $181.34$123.2566

All 194 counties, with a filter by state and sorting

Cities and ZIP areas in Sebastian County

1 city in this county is on PickARoofer. ZIP Code Tabulation Areas are Census shapes that approximate ZIP codes; where we have a city’s ZIPs, the share is the part of each area’s land that lies in this county. 14 such areas have more than half their land here.

CityZIP areas (share of land in the county)Pages
Fort Smith 72901 (100%), 72903 (100%), 72904 (100%), 72908 (100%), 72916 (100%) Roofers

Storm hit your roof in Sebastian County? A free inspection tells you if there is damage. One local roofer answers, not five.

Start an inspection request

Questions

How high is storm risk in Sebastian County?

FEMA's National Risk Index gives Sebastian County an overall score of 86.80 (Relatively Moderate), 416th of 3,144. Hail scores 65.62 (Relatively Low), strong wind 56.04 (Relatively Moderate) and tornado 94.24 (Relatively High).

In Sebastian County, how many hail reports has NOAA logged?

A report is one entry for one storm in one county, so counts follow where people live as well as where hail fell. NOAA has 91 for Sebastian County between 2014 and June 2026, on 38 days with hail of 1 inch or more; the largest stone was 2.5 inches.

What do hail and wind cost a home in Sebastian County each year, on average?

Applying FEMA's county rates to its median home value of $166,000: FEMA's estimate is about $2.21 a year for hail and $0.60 for wind, before any deductible, against $3.71 and $3.38 at the U.S. median county rates. This is an average over many years and all buildings, not a prediction for one roof; one bad storm costs far more than the average year.

How does Sebastian County compare with the rest of Arkansas?

Per $1 million of buildings Sebastian County loses $13 to hail a year, against $22 in the median county of the state. Among 75 rated counties it is 24th for hail, 42nd for strong wind and 8th for tornado.

How old are the roofs in Sebastian County?

The median home was built in 1980, 46 years ago, and 77.6% of the 57,197 housing units in Sebastian County date from before 2000. Asphalt shingles are rated 15 to 20 years (3-tab) or 25 to 30 years (architectural), so an original roof of either kind is past its rated life. The Census does not record when a roof was replaced.

What does expected annual loss mean?

It is FEMA's estimate of the average yearly loss from a hazard, in dollars, summed over the county. It is built for comparing counties at planning level, not for pricing one house.

Does a high rating mean my roof will be damaged?

No. The index compares counties and cannot say what will happen on your street. After a storm, a roof inspection is the only way to know.

Sources for Sebastian County: FEMA National Risk Index, version December 2025, retrieved October 8, 2026; NOAA Storm Events Database hail reports for Sebastian County; Census Bureau ZCTA-to-county relationship file (2020); Census ACS and Building Permits Survey, homes in Sebastian County; Census County Business Patterns, roofing firms in Sebastian County; OpenFEMA, declarations naming Sebastian County. Planning-level information about Sebastian County, not an inspection and not insurance advice.

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).