Storm risk in Cole County, Missouri

FEMA's overall hazard score for Cole County is 73.44 (Relatively Low), 836th of 3,144 counties. Hail scores 48.25 (Relatively Low), strong wind 76.94 (Relatively Moderate) and tornado 84.32 (Relatively Moderate). Expected hail loss is $16 per $1 million of buildings a year; NOAA logged 24 hail reports in Cole County from 2014 to June 2026.

FEMA National Risk Index, version December 2025, retrieved October 8, 2026. NOAA hail reports 2014 to June 2026.

Cole County: expected yearly loss per $1 million of buildings for hail, strong wind and tornado, on a log scale, against all U.S. counties and the counties of MO$0.1$1$10$100$1,000Hail: $16 per $1 million, 1,792nd of 3,126 rated counties$16Hail1,792nd of 3,126 countiesStrong wind: $23 per $1 million, 1,433rd of 3,121 rated counties$23Strong wind1,433rd of 3,121 countiesTornado: $338 per $1 million, 900th of 3,144 rated counties$338Tornado900th of 3,144 counties
  • Cole County, coloured by its FEMA rating
  • all U.S. counties
  • each county in the state
  • U.S. median
  • state median

Expected yearly loss per $1 million of buildings, log scale. Dot colour is FEMA’s rating band. The tornado lane counts everything exposed, not only buildings.

How FEMA rates Cole County

HazardRatingScore (0 to 100)Rank in U.S.Rank in MO
OverallRelatively Low 73.44836 of 3,14427 of 115
HailRelatively Low 48.251,628 of 3,12662 of 115
Strong windRelatively Moderate 76.94726 of 3,12628 of 115
TornadoRelatively Moderate 84.32494 of 3,12619 of 115

Expected yearly loss, in dollars

HazardThis county, total a yearPer $1M of buildingsState median countyU.S. median countyRank per $1M, U.S.Rank per $1M, state
Hail$313,589$16 $52$22 1,792 of 3,12697 of 115
Strong wind$457,816$23 $40$20 1,433 of 3,12175 of 115
Tornado$6,661,087$338 $381$199 900 of 3,14472 of 115

Rank 1 is the highest. Overall, hail and wind losses count buildings; the tornado row counts everything FEMA exposes, so it overstates building damage. Expected annual loss is an average over many years for the whole county, not a forecast for one roof.

What stands out in Cole County

  • FEMA expects hail in Cole County to cost $16 per $1 million of buildings a year: 0.71 times the U.S. median and 0.31 times the MO county median, ranked 1,792nd of 3,126 counties nationally and 97th of 115 in Missouri.
  • FEMA expects strong wind in Cole County to cost $23 per $1 million of buildings a year: 1.14 times the U.S. median and 0.58 times the MO county median, ranked 1,433rd of 3,121 counties nationally and 75th of 115 in Missouri.
  • FEMA expects tornado in Cole County to cost $338 per $1 million of buildings a year: 1.70 times the U.S. median and 0.89 times the MO county median, ranked 900th of 3,144 counties nationally and 72nd of 115 in Missouri.
  • Applying FEMA's estimate to a $214,400 home, the average yearly loss in Cole County is about $3.41 for hail and $4.97 for wind before any deductible; at the U.S. median county rates it would be $4.79 and $4.37.
  • If the next years look like 2014 to 2025, a roof kept 20 years in Cole County meets about 28.3 hail days of 1 inch or more; the median county in NOAA's file (1,275 counties) would give 35.0.
  • Built in 1981, the median home in Cole County is 45 years old, so an original roof has outlived a 3-tab shingle (15 to 20 years) and an architectural one (25 to 30 years); 78.2% of its 33,385 homes are at least 26 years old.
  • March to June holds 21 of the 24 hail reports in Cole County (88 percent); the quietest month is January, with 0 reports.

What hail and wind cost a home here in an average year

Enter a home value. The calculator applies Cole County’s own loss rate: the county’s expected yearly loss divided by the value of its buildings. It starts at the Census median home value for the county.

$3.41hail, a year; $4.79 at the U.S. median county rate
$4.97strong wind, a year; $4.37 at the U.S. median county rate
$168hail and wind together over 20 years, at today’s rate

Formula: home value × Cole County yearly loss ÷ building value. Hail: $313,589 ÷ $19,730,955,586 = 0.0000159. Wind: $457,816 ÷ $19,730,955,586 = 0.0000232. This is FEMA’s estimate of average damage to buildings and does not account for your deductible. Tornado is left out because FEMA’s tornado loss counts people and other exposure, not only buildings.

Read this as a yardstick. The rate is an average over every building in the county, from sheds to office towers, and over many years. Real losses come in rare, large storms; a roof with no damage in 19 years can need full replacement in the 20th. The figure is not a quote and not a prediction for one address.

Cole County in plain numbers

  • Cole County scores 73.44 in FEMA's overall hazard index (Relatively Low): 836th of 3,144 rated counties and 27th of 115 in Missouri.
  • Hail scores 48.25 (Relatively Low). FEMA expects $313,589 of hail damage to buildings in Cole County a year, which is $16 per $1 million of buildings, 0.71 times the U.S. median.
  • Strong wind scores 76.94 (Relatively Moderate) with $457,816 of expected yearly building loss in Cole County: $23 per $1 million of buildings, 1.14 times the U.S. median.
  • Tornado scores 84.32 (Relatively Moderate) and FEMA's expected yearly tornado loss is $6,661,087, counting everything exposed, or $338 per $1 million of buildings in Cole County.
  • FEMA's own event record for Cole County averages 4.75 hail events and 3.56 strong-wind events a year.
  • NOAA logged 24 hail reports in Cole County between 2014 and June 2026, on 18 days with stones of 1 inch or more; the largest was 3 inches.
  • In Cole County, FEMA counts buildings worth 19.73 billion dollars and 76,989 residents.
  • Social vulnerability is Very Low in Cole County.
  • Community resilience there is Very High, for 76,989 residents.
  • 1 city in Cole County is covered on this site: Jefferson City. 6 Census ZIP areas have more than half of their land in the county.
  • Our guide range for a 2,000 sq ft asphalt roof in Jefferson City is $6,160 to $13,640.
  • Cole County ranks 116 of the 194 counties with a page here for hail loss per $1 million of buildings, 50 for wind and 54 for tornado.
  • In Cole County, April is the busiest month with 9 of the 24 reports (38 percent), against 0 reports in October.
  • Cole County's worst year was 2017, with 4 hail days at 1 inch or more and 4 reports. At the 2014 to 2025 pace that is 1.42 such days a year, one about every 8.5 months.
  • The median home in Cole County was built in 1981; 47.9% of its 33,385 housing units date from before 1980, 78.2% from before 2000 and 8.0% from 2010 on.
  • Census puts the median home value in Cole County at $214,400, and 67.4% of homes are lived in by their owners.
  • 1,866 single-family building permits were issued in Cole County from 2014 to 2025, about 55.9 per 1,000 homes, peaking in 2021.
  • NOAA lists 3 tornado tracks in Cole County since 2014; the strongest was an EF3 on May 22, 2019 near Scrivner, 17.13 miles long.
  • The fastest gust in NOAA's records for Cole County is 81 mph on May 7, 2024 at Jefferson City.
  • The nearest county with a page here is Boone County, 29 miles from the centre of Cole County; its hail score is 71.72.
  • Across counties the median is one roofing firm for every 5,189 homes; Census counted 8 roofing contractor establishments in Cole County in 2023, one for every 4,173 homes.
  • FEMA has named Cole County in 5 disaster declarations since 2014, the latest 2625 days before its data end, and 2 of them were storm-type.

The hail record of Cole County, year by year

NOAA logged 24 reports in Cole County; hail of 1 inch or more fell on 18 days. That is 1.4 such days a year; the median county in NOAA’s file has 1.8.

Cole County: NOAA hail reports per year, 2014 to June 2026, with the number of days that had hail of 1 inch or more0123452014: 5 reports, 2 days at 1 inch or more, largest 1.25 inch142015: 2 reports, 1 days at 1 inch or more, largest 2 inch152016: 1 reports, 0 days at 1 inch or more, largest 0.88 inch162017: 4 reports, 4 days at 1 inch or more, largest 1.5 inch172018: 1 reports, 1 days at 1 inch or more, largest 1 inch182019: 1 reports, 1 days at 1 inch or more, largest 1 inch192020: 1 reports, 1 days at 1 inch or more, largest 3 inch202021: 1 reports, 1 days at 1 inch or more, largest 1 inch212022: 0 reports, 0 days at 1 inch or more, largest 0 inch222023: 3 reports, 3 days at 1 inch or more, largest 2.5 inch232024: 3 reports, 3 days at 1 inch or more, largest 1.75 inch242025: 0 reports, 0 days at 1 inch or more, largest 0 inch252026: 2 reports, 1 days at 1 inch or more, largest 2.5 inch26*
  • reports
  • days with hail of 1 inch or more
  • * 2026 runs to June only
Cole County: NOAA hail reports by calendar month, 2014 to June 2026January: 0 reports0JanFebruary: 0 reports0FebMarch: 7 reports7MarApril: 9 reports9AprMay: 3 reports3MayJune: 2 reports2JunJuly: 2 reports2JulAugust: 1 reports1AugSeptember: 0 reports0SepOctober: 0 reports0OctNovember: 0 reports0NovDecember: 0 reports0Dec

Reports by calendar month, all years together. Peak: April, 9 reports.

The same numbers as a table (years with at least one report)
YearReportsDays, 1 inch or moreDays, 1.75 inch or moreLargest stoneDamage reported
20145201.25 in–
20152112 in–
20161000.88 in–
20174401.5 in–
20181101 in–
20191101 in–
20201113 in$3,000,000
20211101 in–
20233312.5 in–
20243311.75 in$100,000
2026 (to June)2112.5 in–

Biggest hail days in Cole County

DateLargest stoneReports that dayDamage reportedNear
March 27, 20203 in1$3,000,000Lohman
April 16, 20262.5 in2none recordedEugene
August 2, 20232.5 in1none recordedSt Martin
April 8, 20152 in2none recordedEugene
April 1, 20241.75 in1$100,000Russellville

Where large hail was reported

FEMA scores the county as a whole. NOAA’s reports show where inside Cole County the big stones fell.

Reported hail locations, Cole County

1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1.25 in hail1.25 in hail1.25 in hail1.5 in hail1.75 in hail2 in hail2.5 in hail2.5 in hail3 in hail Jefferson City
  • 161 to 1.74 in
  • 41.75 to 2.74 in, golf ball to tennis ball
  • 12.75 in and up, baseball

Largest plotted stone: 3 in. Bigger dots are bigger stones.

21 reports of 1 inch or larger have coordinates. Each dot is a reported location, not a storm path.

Sources: NOAA, Census county outline

Wind and tornado records for Cole County

Fastest gusts in Cole County

DateGustNear
May 7, 202481 mphJefferson City
July 7, 201670 mphScruggs
June 1, 201970 mphJefferson City
May 18, 201970 mphEugene

Strongest tornado tracks in Cole County

DateScaleLengthInjured / killedNear
May 22, 2019EF317.13 mi32 / 0Scrivner
May 19, 2017EF10.95 mi0 / 0Wardsville
April 17, 2026EF01.47 mi0 / 0Marion

3 tornado tracks in all since 2014; the strongest 3 are listed.

How old the roofs are

Census counts homes by the decade they were built. Under each bar is the number of hail days of 1 inch or more that an original roof from that decade has met, at Cole County’s 2014 to 2025 pace of 1.42 such days a year. Most roofs have been replaced since; the row shows what a roof that never was would have taken.

Cole County: share of homes by decade built, with the hail days at 1 inch or more that an original roof from each decade has met at the county's 2014 to 2025 ratepre-1940: 9.2% of homes9.2%<19401291940s: 2.9% of homes2.9%1940s1151950s: 8.1% of homes8.1%1950s1011960s: 10.9% of homes10.9%1960s861970s: 16.8% of homes16.8%1970s721980s: 15.3% of homes15.3%1980s581990s: 15.0% of homes15%1990s442000s: 13.9% of homes13.9%2000s302010s: 7.3% of homes7.3%2010s162020+: 0.7% of homes0.7%2020+4

Bars: share of 33,385 housing units by decade built. Figures under the decade: hail days met by an original roof, at the county’s 2014 to 2025 pace. The pace of earlier years is unknown.

Median year built1981
Built before 198047.9%
Built before 200078.2%
Built since 20108.0%
Owner-occupied67.4%
Median home value$214,400
Single-family permits, 2014 to 20251,866
Permits per 1,000 homes55.9

Asphalt shingles are rated 15 to 20 years (3-tab) and 25 to 30 years (architectural). Source: Census ACS 2019 to 2023 and Building Permits Survey.

Roofers and past disasters in Cole County

Roofing firms in Cole County

Roofing contractor establishments, 20238
Change since 2016+3 (+60%)
Homes per roofing firm4,173
Median across counties5,189
Employees, 2023197

Source for Cole County: Census County Business Patterns, NAICS 238160.

FEMA disaster declarations naming Cole County since 2014

Declarations naming Cole County5
Storm / flood / winter / fire2 / 3 / 0 / 0
Median MO county5
Rank among 70 MO counties32
Days from the latest to the data cutoff2,625

Source for Cole County: OpenFEMA, data to 2026-09-15.

Nearby counties

The closest counties that have a risk page, by distance between county centres. Loss is per $1 million of buildings; the columns marked "times here" divide the neighbour's loss by Cole County's.

CountyMilesOverallHail lossHail, times hereWind lossWind, times hereNOAA hail reports
Boone County, MO29 Relatively Moderate $140.86$8.540.3733
Greene County, MO107 Relatively Moderate $402.50$200.86194
Jasper County, MO146 Relatively Moderate $674.23$241.03103
Buchanan County, MO160 Relatively Low $825.13$210.9126
Cape Girardeau County, MO163 Relatively Moderate $382.39$381.6431

All 194 counties, with a filter by state and sorting

Cities and ZIP areas in Cole County

1 city in this county is on PickARoofer. ZIP Code Tabulation Areas are Census shapes that approximate ZIP codes; where we have a city’s ZIPs, the share is the part of each area’s land that lies in this county. 6 such areas have more than half their land here.

Storm hit your roof in Cole County? A free inspection tells you if there is damage. One local roofer answers, not five.

Start an inspection request

Questions

How high is storm risk in Cole County?

FEMA's National Risk Index gives Cole County an overall score of 73.44 (Relatively Low), 836th of 3,144. Hail scores 48.25 (Relatively Low), strong wind 76.94 (Relatively Moderate) and tornado 84.32 (Relatively Moderate).

In Cole County, how many hail reports has NOAA logged?

A report is one entry for one storm in one county, so counts follow where people live as well as where hail fell. NOAA has 24 for Cole County between 2014 and June 2026, on 18 days with hail of 1 inch or more; the largest stone was 3 inches.

What do hail and wind cost a home in Cole County each year, on average?

Applying FEMA's county rates to its median home value of $214,400: FEMA's estimate is about $3.41 a year for hail and $4.97 for wind, before any deductible, against $4.79 and $4.37 at the U.S. median county rates. This is an average over many years and all buildings, not a prediction for one roof; one bad storm costs far more than the average year.

How does Cole County compare with the rest of Missouri?

Per $1 million of buildings Cole County loses $16 to hail a year, against $52 in the median county of the state. Among 115 rated counties it is 62nd for hail, 28th for strong wind and 19th for tornado.

How old are the roofs in Cole County?

The median home was built in 1981, 45 years ago, and 78.2% of the 33,385 housing units in Cole County date from before 2000. Asphalt shingles are rated 15 to 20 years (3-tab) or 25 to 30 years (architectural), so an original roof of either kind is past its rated life. The Census does not record when a roof was replaced.

What does expected annual loss mean?

It is FEMA's estimate of the average yearly loss from a hazard, in dollars, summed over the county. It is built for comparing counties at planning level, not for pricing one house.

Does a high rating mean my roof will be damaged?

No. The index compares counties and cannot say what will happen on your street. After a storm, a roof inspection is the only way to know.

Sources for Cole County: FEMA National Risk Index, version December 2025, retrieved October 8, 2026; NOAA Storm Events Database hail reports for Cole County; Census Bureau ZCTA-to-county relationship file (2020); Census ACS and Building Permits Survey, homes in Cole County; Census County Business Patterns, roofing firms in Cole County; OpenFEMA, declarations naming Cole County. Planning-level information about Cole County, not an inspection and not insurance advice.

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).