Storm risk in Forsyth County, North Carolina

FEMA's overall hazard score for Forsyth County is 91.54 (Relatively Moderate), 267th of 3,144 counties. Hail scores 85.88 (Relatively Moderate), strong wind 85.94 (Relatively High) and tornado 90.87 (Relatively High). Expected hail loss is $7.95 per $1 million of buildings a year; NOAA logged 23 hail reports in Forsyth County from 2014 to June 2026.

FEMA National Risk Index, version December 2025, retrieved October 8, 2026. NOAA hail reports 2014 to June 2026.

Forsyth County: expected yearly loss per $1 million of buildings for hail, strong wind and tornado, on a log scale, against all U.S. counties and the counties of NC$0.1$1$10$100$1,000Hail: $7.95 per $1 million, 2,222nd of 3,126 rated counties$7.95Hail2,222nd of 3,126 countiesStrong wind: $2.47 per $1 million, 2,867th of 3,121 rated counties$2.47Strong wind2,867th of 3,121 countiesTornado: $97 per $1 million, 2,091st of 3,144 rated counties$97Tornado2,091st of 3,144 counties
  • Forsyth County, coloured by its FEMA rating
  • all U.S. counties
  • each county in the state
  • U.S. median
  • state median

Expected yearly loss per $1 million of buildings, log scale. Dot colour is FEMA’s rating band. The tornado lane counts everything exposed, not only buildings.

How FEMA rates Forsyth County

HazardRatingScore (0 to 100)Rank in U.S.Rank in NC
OverallRelatively Moderate 91.54267 of 3,1449 of 100
HailRelatively Moderate 85.88445 of 3,1268 of 100
Strong windRelatively High 85.94443 of 3,12614 of 100
TornadoRelatively High 90.87288 of 3,12610 of 100

Expected yearly loss, in dollars

HazardThis county, total a yearPer $1M of buildingsState median countyU.S. median countyRank per $1M, U.S.Rank per $1M, state
Hail$631,634$7.95 $9.65$22 2,222 of 3,12663 of 100
Strong wind$196,008$2.47 $8.61$20 2,867 of 3,12196 of 100
Tornado$7,676,875$97 $156$199 2,091 of 3,14484 of 100

Rank 1 is the highest. Overall, hail and wind losses count buildings; the tornado row counts everything FEMA exposes, so it overstates building damage. Expected annual loss is an average over many years for the whole county, not a forecast for one roof.

What stands out in Forsyth County

  • FEMA expects hail in Forsyth County to cost $7.95 per $1 million of buildings a year: 0.36 times the U.S. median and 0.82 times the NC county median, ranked 2,222nd of 3,126 counties nationally and 63rd of 100 in North Carolina.
  • FEMA expects strong wind in Forsyth County to cost $2.47 per $1 million of buildings a year: 0.12 times the U.S. median and 0.29 times the NC county median, ranked 2,867th of 3,121 counties nationally and 96th of 100 in North Carolina.
  • FEMA expects tornado in Forsyth County to cost $97 per $1 million of buildings a year: 0.49 times the U.S. median and 0.62 times the NC county median, ranked 2,091st of 3,144 counties nationally and 84th of 100 in North Carolina.
  • Applying FEMA's estimate to a $227,800 home, the average yearly loss in Forsyth County is about $1.81 for hail and $0.56 for wind before any deductible; at the U.S. median county rates it would be $5.09 and $4.64.
  • If the next years look like 2014 to 2025, a roof kept 20 years in Forsyth County meets about 23.3 hail days of 1 inch or more; the median county in NOAA's file (1,275 counties) would give 35.0.
  • Built in 1983, the median home in Forsyth County is 43 years old, so an original roof has outlived a 3-tab shingle (15 to 20 years) and an architectural one (25 to 30 years); 74.5% of its 173,220 homes are at least 26 years old.
  • March to June holds 21 of the 23 hail reports in Forsyth County (91 percent); the quietest month is January, with 0 reports.

What hail and wind cost a home here in an average year

Enter a home value. The calculator applies Forsyth County’s own loss rate: the county’s expected yearly loss divided by the value of its buildings. It starts at the Census median home value for the county.

$1.81hail, a year; $5.09 at the U.S. median county rate
$0.56strong wind, a year; $4.64 at the U.S. median county rate
$47hail and wind together over 20 years, at today’s rate

Formula: home value × Forsyth County yearly loss ÷ building value. Hail: $631,634 ÷ $79,403,590,721 = 0.0000080. Wind: $196,008 ÷ $79,403,590,721 = 0.0000025. This is FEMA’s estimate of average damage to buildings and does not account for your deductible. Tornado is left out because FEMA’s tornado loss counts people and other exposure, not only buildings.

Read this as a yardstick. The rate is an average over every building in the county, from sheds to office towers, and over many years. Real losses come in rare, large storms; a roof with no damage in 19 years can need full replacement in the 20th. The figure is not a quote and not a prediction for one address.

Forsyth County in plain numbers

  • Forsyth County scores 91.54 in FEMA's overall hazard index (Relatively Moderate): 267th of 3,144 rated counties and 9th of 100 in North Carolina.
  • Hail scores 85.88 (Relatively Moderate). FEMA expects $631,634 of hail damage to buildings in Forsyth County a year, which is $7.95 per $1 million of buildings, 0.36 times the U.S. median.
  • Strong wind scores 85.94 (Relatively High) with $196,008 of expected yearly building loss in Forsyth County: $2.47 per $1 million of buildings, 0.12 times the U.S. median.
  • Tornado scores 90.87 (Relatively High) and FEMA's expected yearly tornado loss is $7,676,875, counting everything exposed, or $97 per $1 million of buildings in Forsyth County.
  • FEMA's own event record for Forsyth County averages 4.86 hail events and 2.58 strong-wind events a year.
  • NOAA logged 23 hail reports in Forsyth County between 2014 and June 2026, on 14 days with stones of 1 inch or more; the largest was 1.75 inches.
  • In Forsyth County, FEMA counts buildings worth 79.40 billion dollars and 382,522 residents.
  • Social vulnerability is Relatively Low in Forsyth County.
  • Community resilience there is Relatively High, for 382,522 residents.
  • 1 city in Forsyth County is covered on this site: Winston Salem. 16 Census ZIP areas have more than half of their land in the county.
  • Our guide range for a 2,000 sq ft asphalt roof in Winston Salem is $6,370 to $14,105.
  • Forsyth County ranks 144 of the 194 counties with a page here for hail loss per $1 million of buildings, 178 for wind and 150 for tornado.
  • In Forsyth County, June is the busiest month with 9 of the 23 reports (39 percent), against 0 reports in December.
  • Forsyth County's worst year was 2016, with 3 hail days at 1 inch or more and 4 reports. At the 2014 to 2025 pace that is 1.17 such days a year, one about every 10.3 months.
  • The median home in Forsyth County was built in 1983; 44.9% of its 173,220 housing units date from before 1980, 74.5% from before 2000 and 11.1% from 2010 on.
  • Census puts the median home value in Forsyth County at $227,800, and 62.7% of homes are lived in by their owners.
  • 24,615 single-family building permits were issued in Forsyth County from 2014 to 2025, about 142.1 per 1,000 homes, peaking in 2020.
  • The fastest gust in NOAA's records for Forsyth County is 62 mph on July 12, 2025 at (Int)Winston-Salem A.
  • The nearest county with a page here is Guilford County, 27 miles from the centre of Forsyth County; its hail score is 92.18.
  • Across counties the median is one roofing firm for every 5,189 homes; Census counted 40 roofing contractor establishments in Forsyth County in 2023, one for every 4,330 homes.

The hail record of Forsyth County, year by year

NOAA logged 23 reports in Forsyth County; hail of 1 inch or more fell on 14 days. That is 1.2 such days a year; the median county in NOAA’s file has 1.8.

Forsyth County: NOAA hail reports per year, 2014 to June 2026, with the number of days that had hail of 1 inch or more0123452014: 3 reports, 2 days at 1 inch or more, largest 1 inch142015: 2 reports, 2 days at 1 inch or more, largest 1.25 inch152016: 4 reports, 3 days at 1 inch or more, largest 1.75 inch162017: 2 reports, 2 days at 1 inch or more, largest 1 inch172018: 1 reports, 1 days at 1 inch or more, largest 1.25 inch182019: 2 reports, 1 days at 1 inch or more, largest 1 inch192020: 0 reports, 0 days at 1 inch or more, largest 0 inch202021: 1 reports, 1 days at 1 inch or more, largest 1 inch212022: 3 reports, 1 days at 1 inch or more, largest 1 inch222023: 5 reports, 1 days at 1 inch or more, largest 1.25 inch232024: 0 reports, 0 days at 1 inch or more, largest 0 inch242025: 0 reports, 0 days at 1 inch or more, largest 0 inch252026: 0 reports, 0 days at 1 inch or more, largest 0 inch26*
  • reports
  • days with hail of 1 inch or more
  • * 2026 runs to June only
Forsyth County: NOAA hail reports by calendar month, 2014 to June 2026January: 0 reports0JanFebruary: 0 reports0FebMarch: 0 reports0MarApril: 5 reports5AprMay: 7 reports7MayJune: 9 reports9JunJuly: 1 reports1JulAugust: 0 reports0AugSeptember: 1 reports1SepOctober: 0 reports0OctNovember: 0 reports0NovDecember: 0 reports0Dec

Reports by calendar month, all years together. Peak: June, 9 reports.

The same numbers as a table (years with at least one report)
YearReportsDays, 1 inch or moreDays, 1.75 inch or moreLargest stoneDamage reported
20143201 in–
20152201.25 in–
20164321.75 in–
20172201 in–
20181101.25 in–
20192101 in–
20211101 in–
20223101 in–
20235101.25 in–

Biggest hail days in Forsyth County

DateLargest stoneReports that dayDamage reportedNear
May 2, 20161.75 in2none recordedHanes
May 12, 20161.75 in1none recordedCityview
June 26, 20231.25 in3none recordedClemmons Station
April 20, 20151.25 in1none recordedSwaintown
September 28, 20161.25 in1none recordedGuthrie

Where large hail was reported

FEMA scores the county as a whole. NOAA’s reports show where inside Forsyth County the big stones fell.

Reported hail locations, Forsyth County

1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1 in hail1.25 in hail1.25 in hail1.25 in hail1.25 in hail1.75 in hail1.75 in hail Winston Salem
  • 171 to 1.74 in
  • 21.75 to 2.74 in, golf ball to tennis ball
  • 02.75 in and up, baseball

Largest plotted stone: 1.75 in. Bigger dots are bigger stones.

19 reports of 1 inch or larger have coordinates. Each dot is a reported location, not a storm path.

Sources: NOAA, Census county outline

Wind and tornado records for Forsyth County

Fastest gusts in Forsyth County

DateGustNear
July 12, 202562 mph(Int)Winston-Salem A
March 12, 201460 mphLewisville
July 5, 202259 mphEaston View
June 10, 201458 mphKernersville

How old the roofs are

Census counts homes by the decade they were built. Under each bar is the number of hail days of 1 inch or more that an original roof from that decade has met, at Forsyth County’s 2014 to 2025 pace of 1.17 such days a year. Most roofs have been replaced since; the row shows what a roof that never was would have taken.

Forsyth County: share of homes by decade built, with the hail days at 1 inch or more that an original roof from each decade has met at the county's 2014 to 2025 ratepre-1940: 6.2% of homes6.2%<19401061940s: 3.5% of homes3.5%1940s941950s: 9.9% of homes9.9%1950s831960s: 10.2% of homes10.2%1960s711970s: 15.2% of homes15.2%1970s601980s: 14.8% of homes14.8%1980s481990s: 14.7% of homes14.7%1990s362000s: 14.4% of homes14.4%2000s242010s: 10.0% of homes10%2010s132020+: 1.1% of homes1.1%2020+4

Bars: share of 173,220 housing units by decade built. Figures under the decade: hail days met by an original roof, at the county’s 2014 to 2025 pace. The pace of earlier years is unknown.

Median year built1983
Built before 198044.9%
Built before 200074.5%
Built since 201011.1%
Owner-occupied62.7%
Median home value$227,800
Single-family permits, 2014 to 202524,615
Permits per 1,000 homes142.1

Asphalt shingles are rated 15 to 20 years (3-tab) and 25 to 30 years (architectural). Source: Census ACS 2019 to 2023 and Building Permits Survey.

Roofers and past disasters in Forsyth County

Roofing firms in Forsyth County

Roofing contractor establishments, 202340
Change since 2016+16 (+67%)
Homes per roofing firm4,330
Median across counties5,189
Employees, 2023358

Source for Forsyth County: Census County Business Patterns, NAICS 238160.

Nearby counties

The closest counties that have a risk page, by distance between county centres. Loss is per $1 million of buildings; the columns marked "times here" divide the neighbour's loss by Forsyth County's.

CountyMilesOverallHail lossHail, times hereWind lossWind, times hereNOAA hail reports
Guilford County, NC27 Relatively Moderate $101.28$3.231.3148
Alamance County, NC49 Relatively Low $182.25$6.652.7019
Cabarrus County, NC55 Relatively Moderate $6.710.84$2.891.1732
Gaston County, NC77 Relatively Moderate $8.921.12$3.571.4532
Wake County, NC95 Relatively High $526.56$1.200.49131
Cumberland County, NC111 Relatively Moderate $141.81$114.3025

More North Carolina counties, nearest first

All 194 counties, with a filter by state and sorting

Cities and ZIP areas in Forsyth County

1 city in this county is on PickARoofer. ZIP Code Tabulation Areas are Census shapes that approximate ZIP codes; where we have a city’s ZIPs, the share is the part of each area’s land that lies in this county. 16 such areas have more than half their land here.

CityZIP areas (share of land in the county)Pages
Winston Salem 27103 (100%), 27106 (100%), 27109 (100%) Roofers

Storm hit your roof in Forsyth County? A free inspection tells you if there is damage. One local roofer answers, not five.

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Questions

How high is storm risk in Forsyth County?

FEMA's National Risk Index gives Forsyth County an overall score of 91.54 (Relatively Moderate), 267th of 3,144. Hail scores 85.88 (Relatively Moderate), strong wind 85.94 (Relatively High) and tornado 90.87 (Relatively High).

In Forsyth County, how many hail reports has NOAA logged?

A report is one entry for one storm in one county, so counts follow where people live as well as where hail fell. NOAA has 23 for Forsyth County between 2014 and June 2026, on 14 days with hail of 1 inch or more; the largest stone was 1.75 inches.

What do hail and wind cost a home in Forsyth County each year, on average?

Applying FEMA's county rates to its median home value of $227,800: FEMA's estimate is about $1.81 a year for hail and $0.56 for wind, before any deductible, against $5.09 and $4.64 at the U.S. median county rates. This is an average over many years and all buildings, not a prediction for one roof; one bad storm costs far more than the average year.

How does Forsyth County compare with the rest of North Carolina?

Per $1 million of buildings Forsyth County loses $7.95 to hail a year, against $9.65 in the median county of the state. Among 100 rated counties it is 8th for hail, 14th for strong wind and 10th for tornado.

How old are the roofs in Forsyth County?

The median home was built in 1983, 43 years ago, and 74.5% of the 173,220 housing units in Forsyth County date from before 2000. Asphalt shingles are rated 15 to 20 years (3-tab) or 25 to 30 years (architectural), so an original roof of either kind is past its rated life. The Census does not record when a roof was replaced.

What does expected annual loss mean?

It is FEMA's estimate of the average yearly loss from a hazard, in dollars, summed over the county. It is built for comparing counties at planning level, not for pricing one house.

Does a high rating mean my roof will be damaged?

No. The index compares counties and cannot say what will happen on your street. After a storm, a roof inspection is the only way to know.

Sources for Forsyth County: FEMA National Risk Index, version December 2025, retrieved October 8, 2026; NOAA Storm Events Database hail reports for Forsyth County; Census Bureau ZCTA-to-county relationship file (2020); Census ACS and Building Permits Survey, homes in Forsyth County; Census County Business Patterns, roofing firms in Forsyth County. Planning-level information about Forsyth County, not an inspection and not insurance advice.

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).